tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3141 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3141 Southwest MSY 05:41 TPA 08:34 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3142 Southwest MSY 12:06 TPA 14:59 15% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 5h 45m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 5h 22m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 5h 24m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 6h 15m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497 2h 10m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 7h 22m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594 5h 15m 97% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON