Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5176 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day OH 5176 MYR 06:31 → CLT 07:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2943 MYR 17:42 → CLT 18:51 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5176 PSA	MYR 06:31	CLT 07:36	9%	2%	1.5%	no record
OH 5290 PSA	MYR 10:17	CLT 11:22	9%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 3296 American Flight history →	MYR 06:51	CLT 07:58	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
OH 5188 PSA	MYR 13:53	CLT 14:58	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 2431 American Flight history →	MYR 12:09	CLT 13:18	16%	4%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AA 1417 American Flight history →	MYR 19:24	CLT 20:34	19%	6%	1.2%	73%
AA 2943 American Flight history →	MYR 17:42	CLT 18:51	20%	5%	1.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON