Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Hebron on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 25m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	4h 59m	99%	86%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → CVG 12:29AA 1533	5h 38m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	5h 34m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 16:32 → CVG 17:49DL 5060 · flown by Endeavor	6h 15m	99%	74%
American Details →	MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 16:09 → CVG 17:31AA 5293 · flown by PSA	5h 22m	84%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON