tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4428 Republic MYR 12:07 DCA 13:45 13% 4% 1.2% no record
YX 4434 Republic MYR 19:20 DCA 20:58 15% 6% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 09:28 → DCA 11:13AA 3043 4h 22m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 6h 55m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 3h 47m Detroit DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030 7h 25m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:42 → CLT 18:51AA 2943 1h 46m Charlotte CLT 20:37 → DCA 22:24AA 2432 4h 42m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 6h 56m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 30m Philadelphia PHL 15:38 → DCA 16:44AA 5363 · flown by PSA 5h 25m 96% 63%
AmericanDetails → MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839 4h 04m 84% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON