Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	98%	87%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 10:51 → DEN 12:26AA 1662	7h 35m	98%	84%
United Details →	MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 24m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	7h 55m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	8h 14m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	7h 53m	99%	81%
American Details →	MYR 13:27 → PHL 15:14AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	2h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → DEN 19:45AA 3158	8h 18m	95%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON