Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	9%	3%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:21 → DTW 10:21DL 643	4h 21m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	5h 45m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	7h 20m	98%	82%
American Details →	MYR 17:42 → CLT 18:51AA 2943	1h 55m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	4h 52m	93%	70%
American Details →	MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 15:42 → DTW 17:34AA 1134	5h 25m	84%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON