Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4324 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 10:34	IAD 12:11	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965	7h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	6h 48m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	5h 07m	96%	80%
American Details →	MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 16:10 → IAD 17:44AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 35m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON