Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	4h 41m	96%	83%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150	4h 24m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	5h 08m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	6h 36m	97%	70%
American Details →	MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942	5h 06m	84%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON