Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3402 at 17:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3402 Republic	MYR 17:00	ORD 18:37	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MYR 08:01 → CLT 09:10AA 3296	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908	5h 18m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → ORD 16:23DL 2358	5h 49m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MYR 10:48 → ATL 12:15DL 3047	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → ORD 16:28DL 2738	6h 40m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → ORD 18:45DL 2879	5h 54m	97%	67%
American Details →	MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	6h 30m	87%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON