Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4360 MYR 11:09 → PHL 13:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4948 MYR 09:34 → PHL 11:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4360 Republic	MYR 11:09	PHL 13:08	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
F9 4948 Frontier Flight history →	MYR 09:34	PHL 11:35	13%	6%	1.7%	65%
AA 5848 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 11:19	PHL 13:08	15%	7%	1.4%	85%
AA 5849 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 18:45	PHL 20:38	23%	16%	9.9%	77%
AA 6120 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 13:27	PHL 15:12	26%	13%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON