tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 50m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 24m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 5h 02m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 23m Philadelphia PHL 15:31 → STL 17:04AA 2571 6h 45m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 49m Charlotte CLT 08:47 → STL 09:50AA 2497 3h 59m 83% 75%
AmericanDetails → MYR 12:09 → CLT 13:18AA 2431 3h 44m Charlotte CLT 17:02 → STL 18:04AA 2686 6h 55m 84% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON