Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	7%	2%	1.2%	90%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	10%	2%	1.0%	83%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	11%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	12%	5%	1.3%	82%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	12%	4%	1.3%	85%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	14%	5%	1.1%	82%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	15%	6%	0.9%	78%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	16%	5%	0.8%	74%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	16%	5%	1.1%	87%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	16%	6%	1.3%	60%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	17%	6%	0.9%	64%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	17%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	19%	8%	0.7%	75%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	19%	7%	1.3%	72%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	20%	9%	1.1%	75%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	20%	8%	1.1%	65%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	22%	9%	0.7%	67%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	22%	9%	1.0%	67%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	23%	9%	1.2%	72%
AS 27 Alaska	JFK 16:53	SFO 19:37	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	26%	10%	1.0%	72%
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	26%	10%	1.0%	68%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	27%	10%	0.7%	62%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	28%	9%	1.1%	50%
AS 39 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 19:02	SFO 21:54	28%	10%	0.9%	81%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	29%	11%	0.9%	73%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	29%	10%	1.0%	68%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	SFO 19:07	30%	14%	0.9%	78%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	32%	15%	0.9%	68%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	34%	17%	1.0%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	36%	18%	1.1%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	38%	17%	1.0%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	94%	85%
United Details →	EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758	1h 29m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256	8h 24m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON