tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:39 BZN 10:26 12% 3% 1.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 8h 31m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758 1h 54m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 8h 10m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → BZN 12:23AA 2415 9h 23m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 24m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 7h 17m 92% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:15 → LAX 11:53UA 2692 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 9h 09m 74% 64%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39AA 1774 7h 57m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON