Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 431 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 431 LGA 06:01 → HOU 08:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2127 EWR 19:51 → IAH 22:23 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 431 Southwest	LGA 06:01	HOU 08:29	6%	2%	1.7%	no record
UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 575 United	LGA 06:00	IAH 08:31	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	11%	4%	0.8%	94%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	11%	4%	1.1%	89%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:49	IAH 10:20	13%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	18%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 4201 United	EWR 13:12	IAH 16:13	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	18%	5%	0.9%	86%
WN 4222 Southwest	LGA 11:22	HOU 13:51	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 344 United	LGA 12:46	IAH 15:17	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	20%	8%	0.8%	73%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	21%	7%	0.7%	64%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	22%	8%	0.6%	62%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	22%	6%	1.0%	76%
UA 1830 United	EWR 13:49	IAH 16:22	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:20	IAH 11:07	22%	7%	1.0%	66%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:36	IAH 23:38	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2536 Southwest	LGA 14:42	HOU 17:11	26%	10%	1.2%	no record
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	27%	14%	0.8%	65%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	29%	13%	0.6%	69%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	30%	10%	0.7%	75%
UA 1179 United	LGA 17:58	IAH 20:30	30%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1063 Southwest	LGA 17:41	HOU 20:10	32%	14%	1.0%	no record
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	33%	11%	0.9%	51%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	33%	15%	0.7%	69%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:51	IAH 22:23	37%	14%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON