Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2238 EWR 16:00 → LAX 18:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	8%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 2434 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	LAX 08:53	8%	2%	0.7%	79%
UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SNA 10:08	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	10%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAX 09:55	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	JFK 08:23	SNA 11:15	10%	5%	0.7%	91%
DL 713 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	LAX 10:58	11%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 08:31	LAX 11:16	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 403 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:18	SNA 11:10	11%	5%	0.7%	84%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 08:49	11%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 10:18	LAX 13:06	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 1905 Delta	JFK 11:05	LAX 13:48	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 701 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:48	LAX 16:29	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2679 United Flight history →	EWR 10:45	LAX 13:41	14%	5%	0.7%	78%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:49	14%	3%	0.8%	76%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:38	LAX 12:17	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
UA 212 United Flight history →	EWR 12:00	LAX 14:38	15%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 2692 United Flight history →	EWR 09:44	LAX 12:22	15%	4%	0.7%	69%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:09	LAX 09:48	15%	3%	0.8%	83%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:30	LAX 11:25	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
UA 2445 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:37	15%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 14:40	LAX 17:48	15%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:54	LAX 17:35	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:42	LAX 19:21	16%	5%	0.6%	81%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	17%	7%	0.7%	77%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:03	LAX 13:42	17%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:55	LAX 18:36	18%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:44	SNA 17:43	18%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2191 United Flight history →	EWR 14:15	LAX 17:13	18%	8%	0.6%	78%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:15	LAX 18:16	22%	8%	0.7%	71%
UA 1355 United	EWR 16:30	LAX 19:25	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:37	LAX 19:15	24%	8%	0.7%	74%
UA 2238 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	LAX 18:42	25%	9%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	8h 10m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON