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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 65 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 18:33 → MIA 21:31 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 6% 3% 1.7% 94%
AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 6% 2% 1.3% 95%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:31 MIA 08:45 8% 3% 1.6% 95%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 FLL 10:07 10% 3% 0.8% 88%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 11% 3% 1.1% 86%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 11% 4% 1.5% 89%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 11% 4% 1.4% 82%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 FLL 09:00 11% 3% 1.2% 85%
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 11% 3% 2.2% 88%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 FLL 10:05 13% 4% 1.2% 92%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 14% 4% 1.1% 81%
AA 968 American LGA 08:17 FLL 11:29 14% 6% 1.5% no record
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 15% 3% 1.3% 85%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 07:59 MIA 11:14 15% 4% 2.0% 86%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:30 FLL 10:35 15% 6% 1.6% 82%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:14 FLL 14:24 16% 5% 0.9% 80%
UA 1135 United EWR 07:00 MIA 09:59 16% 4% 1.2% no record
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 19% 5% 1.7% 93%worse than usual
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 19% 5% 1.8% 76%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:55 FLL 13:54 19% 6% 1.1% 75%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 08:05 FLL 11:01 19% 7% 1.3% 80%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 20% 5% 0.9% 78%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:30 FLL 18:54 20% 7% 0.9% 75%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:58 FLL 23:28 20% 8% 1.0% 68%
UA 2151 United EWR 08:42 FLL 11:43 21% 7% 1.2% no record
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:21 FLL 11:17 22% 7% 1.2% 87%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 22% 8% 1.6% 72%
AA 2378 American LGA 11:10 MIA 14:14 22% 9% 1.5% no record
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 09:00 MIA 11:59 22% 6% 1.2% 97%worse than usual
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:10 MIA 18:53 23% 10% 0.9% 72%
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 10:55 MIA 13:54 23% 6% 1.3% 76%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 23% 8% 1.1% 77%
B6 8579 JetBlue JFK 08:14 FLL 11:10 24% 8% 1.3% no record
DL 1428 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:55 MIA 23:37 24% 11% 1.6% 70%
UA 1998 United EWR 10:19 FLL 13:14 24% 8% 1.0% no record
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:21 FLL 15:31 24% 10% 1.3% 68%
AA 1801 American Flight history → EWR 12:34 MIA 15:45 25% 9% 1.4% 82%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:10 FLL 16:20 25% 9% 1.1% 81%
UA 2759 United EWR 11:53 FLL 14:49 26% 10% 1.0% no record
DL 2308 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 FLL 22:52 27% 11% 1.1% 66%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:59 MIA 18:30 27% 12% 1.2% 63%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 28% 11% 1.5% 74%
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:31 MIA 14:38 28% 9% 1.2% 81%
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 13:21 MIA 16:29 29% 10% 1.6% 68%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:30 FLL 19:56 29% 10% 1.1% 66%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:55 MIA 23:22 30% 17% 1.8% 59%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 12:00 FLL 15:03 30% 11% 1.2% 61%
AA 2836 American LGA 15:54 FLL 18:58 33% 12% 1.4% no record
AA 2228 American JFK 16:02 MIA 18:57 33% 10% 1.3% no record
AA 2525 American LGA 15:43 MIA 18:47 33% 14% 1.5% no record
AA 642 American JFK 14:29 MIA 17:29 34% 10% 1.3% no record
AA 845 American LGA 19:30 MIA 22:31 34% 17% 2.1% no record
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:50 MIA 21:21 34% 15% 1.4% 58%
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:36 FLL 19:35 36% 14% 1.6% 77%worse than usual
AA 2603 American Flight history → JFK 17:46 MIA 20:45 36% 11% 1.6% 66%
UA 791 United EWR 20:42 MIA 00:01 37% 15% 1.6% no record
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:11 FLL 21:07 38% 14% 1.5% 65%
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 15:40 FLL 18:53 38% 14% 1.3% 61%
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:28 FLL 18:30 38% 17% 1.6% 42%
AA 3135 American Flight history → LGA 17:00 MIA 20:00 38% 17% 2.3% 63%
UA 435 United EWR 19:31 FLL 22:25 40% 17% 1.0% no record
UA 2096 United EWR 17:45 FLL 20:41 40% 17% 1.2% no record
AA 3088 American Flight history → LGA 18:26 MIA 21:24 41% 18% 2.5% 35%
UA 1498 United EWR 15:38 MIA 18:35 42% 18% 1.1% no record
AA 3016 American EWR 18:33 MIA 21:31 44% 21% 2.4% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON