Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2677 EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1366 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAD 07:22	6%	3%	1.4%	96%
DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DCA 07:23	6%	2%	1.4%	89%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DCA 07:58	8%	2%	1.4%	85%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:29	DCA 07:57	9%	2%	1.2%	67%
YX 5809 Republic	JFK 10:12	IAD 11:41	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:17	DCA 09:48	12%	4%	1.6%	36%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	13%	4%	1.4%	83%
YX 4586 Republic	JFK 08:25	DCA 09:53	13%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:12	DCA 10:40	14%	4%	1.5%	61%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:32	DCA 10:00	14%	3%	1.6%	60%
YX 5779 Republic	JFK 16:02	IAD 17:31	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
YX 4595 Republic	LGA 10:32	DCA 12:00	17%	5%	1.9%	no record
UA 1618 United	EWR 10:00	IAD 11:20	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	20%	6%	1.6%	78%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:53	DCA 16:21	22%	6%	1.1%	81%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:29	DCA 14:58	22%	7%	1.4%	76%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	27%	8%	1.6%	61%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:54	DCA 21:23	27%	11%	1.6%	91%worse than usual
YX 4691 Republic	LGA 15:20	DCA 16:49	27%	7%	1.2%	no record
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	28%	12%	1.8%	62%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	29%	13%	1.9%	50%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:31	DCA 19:12	30%	11%	1.8%	74%
UA 2301 United	EWR 15:08	IAD 16:46	31%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 19:29	IAD 21:00	41%	19%	0.9%	65%
UA 4437 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 06:30	DCA 07:46	16%	10%	3.1%	84%
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:29	IAD 11:55	18%	7%	4.3%	82%
UA 4446 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 08:09	DCA 09:32	20%	14%	5.4%	80%
UA 4444 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:00	DCA 10:23	23%	7%	2.4%	77%
UA 4172 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 11:00	DCA 12:23	28%	13%	3.7%	72%
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:00	DCA 14:23	29%	6%	13.9%	71%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:28	IAD 20:55	31%	22%	14.7%	69%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:40	IAD 18:32	38%	21%	12.7%	62%
UA 4433 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:00	DCA 15:23	40%	24%	4.3%	60%
UA 4432 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 18:10	DCA 19:48	43%	22%	9.6%	57%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:20	DCA 21:53	55%	25%	9.5%	45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 15:30	DCA 16:57	58%	23%	4.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON