Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2115 at 12:11, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2115 Southwest	OAK 12:11	AUS 17:51	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540	6h 46m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	7h 00m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 08:00AS 705	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 11:41 → AUS 17:42AS 502	9h 42m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON