Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3435 at 10:51, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3435 Southwest	OAK 10:51	BOI 13:35	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	96%	92%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → BOI 12:16DL 2095	5h 16m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 08:00AS 705	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 09:59 → BOI 12:26AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920	4h 21m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:49 → SAN 08:25AS 2288 · flown by Horizon	2h 05m San Diego	SAN 10:30 → BOI 13:46AS 2341 · flown by Horizon	5h 57m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON