Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3152 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3152 OAK 06:31 → BUR 07:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3157 OAK 17:04 → BUR 18:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3152 Southwest	OAK 06:31	BUR 07:58	2%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 3153 Southwest	OAK 09:16	BUR 10:43	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 3154 Southwest	OAK 11:11	BUR 12:38	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 3156 Southwest	OAK 15:16	BUR 16:43	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 3432 Southwest	OAK 13:06	BUR 14:33	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 3157 Southwest	OAK 17:04	BUR 18:31	14%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON