Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3183 at 15:36, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3183 Southwest	OAK 15:36	GEG 17:44	22%	8%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 08:00AS 705	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	5h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	3h 53m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:32 → GEG 18:21DL 1219	5h 51m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON