Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 808 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:24	HNL 13:50	31%	8%	0.8%	77%
AS 847 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 08:25	HNL 10:59	35%	6%	1.3%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:31 → SLC 09:31DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 48m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 10m Kahului	OGG 11:27 → HNL 12:09AS 1105	8h 09m	98%	59%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 07:59AS 705	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 10:55 → HNL 14:04AS 626	11h 04m	99%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	49m Kahului	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	6h 48m	57%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON