Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 17m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	8h 31m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 08:00AS 705	1h 27m Seattle	SEA 09:27 → JFK 17:18AS 26	8h 18m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON