Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3558 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3558 OAK 05:26 → LAS 07:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2248 OAK 14:16 → LAS 15:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3558 Southwest	OAK 05:26	LAS 07:04	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4395 Southwest	OAK 06:26	LAS 08:06	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3168 Southwest	OAK 09:03	LAS 10:40	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2845 Southwest	OAK 09:53	LAS 11:30	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 2046 Frontier	OAK 10:13	LAS 12:02	20%	9%	2.5%	no record
WN 2074 Southwest	OAK 12:18	LAS 13:58	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2274 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:36	LAS 19:16	25%	10%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
WN 4413 Southwest	OAK 16:36	LAS 18:12	27%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2248 Southwest	OAK 14:16	LAS 15:53	27%	10%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON