Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3663 at 08:31, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3663 Southwest	OAK 08:31	LIH 11:11	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 59m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 06m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 07:59AS 705	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 40m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	2h 48m Honolulu	HNL 13:47 → LIH 14:31AS 1083	9h 06m	99%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON