Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056	8h 25m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024	9h 01m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:49 → SAN 08:25AS 2288 · flown by Horizon	1h 38m San Diego	SAN 10:03 → MCO 18:17AS 396	8h 28m	98%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON