Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:25, 39% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 923 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 07:00	OGG 09:17	13%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 3181 Southwest	OAK 13:56	OGG 16:18	23%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:31 → SLC 09:31DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	10h 37m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:00 → SEA 07:59AS 705	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	10h 19m	99%	66%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	3h 36m Honolulu	HNL 14:35 → OGG 15:25AS 1136	10h 00m	99%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON