Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4501 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 4501 OAK 05:16 → PDX 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3565 OAK 13:51 → PDX 15:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4501 Southwest	OAK 05:16	PDX 07:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3266 SkyWest	OAK 08:00	PDX 09:55	7%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3565 Southwest	OAK 13:51	PDX 15:42	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 2298 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 07:52	PDX 09:29	4%	2%	0.0%	96%
AS 2096 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 19:13	PDX 20:50	68%	18%	6.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON