Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3194 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3194 OAK 06:26 → SAN 08:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4947 OAK 17:31 → SAN 19:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3194 Southwest	OAK 06:26	SAN 08:07	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 207 Southwest	OAK 08:01	SAN 09:42	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3111 SkyWest	OAK 06:46	SAN 08:32	13%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4944 Southwest	OAK 09:46	SAN 11:27	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2981 Southwest	OAK 11:20	SAN 13:01	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4946 Southwest	OAK 12:16	SAN 13:57	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	OAK 15:10	SAN 16:56	25%	15%	1.0%	no record
OO 3107 SkyWest	OAK 13:26	SAN 15:12	26%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 3145 Southwest	OAK 14:31	SAN 16:12	30%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 3137 Southwest	OAK 16:01	SAN 17:42	30%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 4947 Southwest	OAK 17:31	SAN 19:12	33%	15%	0.7%	no record
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON