Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2117 at 13:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2117 Southwest	OAK 13:36	SBA 14:57	11%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	99%	92%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	5h 13m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON