Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 705 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AS 705 OAK 06:00 → SEA 08:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 536 OAK 14:08 → SEA 16:09 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 705 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:00	SEA 08:00	11%	2%	0.8%	89%
WN 1151 Southwest	OAK 12:31	SEA 14:37	23%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	OAK 10:04	SEA 12:04	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 536 Alaska	OAK 14:08	SEA 16:09	31%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON