Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3204 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3204 OAK 07:16 → SNA 08:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3209 OAK 16:24 → SNA 17:56 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3204 Southwest	OAK 07:16	SNA 08:53	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest	OAK 08:31	SNA 10:08	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3206 Southwest	OAK 10:26	SNA 11:58	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3207 Southwest	OAK 12:31	SNA 14:03	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	OAK 14:14	SNA 15:46	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3209 Southwest	OAK 16:24	SNA 17:56	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON