Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3212 at 06:02, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 3212 OGG 06:02 → HNL 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1135 OGG 14:00 → HNL 14:42 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3212 Southwest	OGG 06:02	HNL 06:59	5%	1%	1.6%	no record
WN 3213 Southwest	OGG 07:22	HNL 08:19	7%	2%	1.6%	no record
AS 1025 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:15	HNL 07:54	13%	5%	2.7%	88%
WN 3214 Southwest	OGG 09:52	HNL 10:49	15%	3%	1.8%	no record
AS 1015 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 05:53	HNL 06:43	16%	6%	3.2%	86%
AS 1035 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:15	HNL 08:54	18%	5%	3.6%	90%
WN 3215 Southwest	OGG 12:01	HNL 12:58	24%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 1055 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:18	HNL 09:58	24%	5%	3.6%	91%worse than usual
AS 1045 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:41	HNL 09:20	25%	6%	3.6%	87%worse than usual
WN 3216 Southwest	OGG 13:51	HNL 14:48	28%	6%	1.2%	no record
AS 1065 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:45	HNL 10:27	33%	6%	3.6%	82%worse than usual
AS 1085 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:30	HNL 11:12	34%	9%	3.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:52	HNL 11:34	35%	9%	2.6%	77%worse than usual
AS 1075 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:06	HNL 10:48	37%	9%	3.6%	80%worse than usual
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:27	HNL 12:09	37%	9%	2.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 1115 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:57	HNL 12:40	37%	10%	2.7%	83%worse than usual
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:00	HNL 14:42	48%	16%	2.3%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON