Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 05:53, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Hilo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 6% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:43AS 1015	1h 17m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → ITO 08:54AS 1022	3h 01m	93%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	2h 07m Honolulu	HNL 10:01 → ITO 10:55AS 1032	3h 40m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	1h 44m Honolulu	HNL 11:04 → ITO 12:09AS 1042	3h 28m	99%	63%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:15 → HNL 08:54AS 1035	3h 24m Honolulu	HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14AS 1052	4h 59m	99%	51%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	3h 04m Honolulu	HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062	4h 42m	100%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:30 → HNL 11:12AS 1085	1h 06m Honolulu	HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14AS 1052	2h 44m	75%	38%
Alaska Details →	OGG 11:57 → HNL 12:40AS 1115	51m Honolulu	HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062	2h 30m	6%	3%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON