Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 1030 at 10:29 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AS 1030 OGG 10:29 → KOA 11:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 1140 OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1030 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:29	KOA 11:22	13%	3%	0.8%	77%
WN 3166 Southwest	OGG 13:34	KOA 14:29	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1250 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:54	KOA 16:28	25%	6%	0.8%	77%
AS 1140 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:03	KOA 14:39	27%	6%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON