Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 932 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:36	LAS 19:10	20%	5%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 31m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → LAS 18:24UA 751	8h 14m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 17:28 → LAS 19:47AS 703	9h 47m	95%	60%
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:43AS 1015	1h 12m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 46m	91%	59%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	2h 58m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 25m	100%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON