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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 463 OGG 13:05 → LAX 21:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 254 OGG 13:14 → LAX 21:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 463 Delta Flight history → OGG 13:05 LAX 21:30 16% 4% 0.7% 80%
UA 418 United Flight history → OGG 13:04 LAX 21:21 19% 5% 0.6% 92%worse than usual
AA 254 American Flight history → OGG 13:14 LAX 21:40 19% 5% 0.6% 81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 7h 55m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 09:18 → HNL 09:58AS 1055 1h 46m Honolulu HNL 11:44 → LAX 20:06AS 826 7h 48m 93% 62%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095 1h 36m Honolulu HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32AS 802 7h 40m 92% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON