Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2354 at 13:21, 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2354 OGG 13:21 → LIH 14:31 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1159 OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2354 Southwest	OGG 13:21	LIH 14:31	27%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1049 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:16	LIH 13:06	30%	6%	0.8%	73%
AS 1159 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:24	LIH 15:13	37%	10%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON