Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, 56% on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 3178 Southwest	OGG 10:01	OAK 18:05	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 924 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:02	OAK 21:00	19%	7%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 55m Honolulu	HNL 12:15 → OAK 20:25AS 848	8h 44m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	59m Seattle	SEA 16:41 → OAK 18:41AS 1328	8h 41m	88%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:30 → HNL 11:12AS 1085	1h 03m Honolulu	HNL 12:15 → OAK 20:25AS 848	6h 55m	69%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON