Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 05:53, 60% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 480 Alaska	OGG 11:22	PDX 19:32	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 31m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → PDX 18:36UA 1812	8h 26m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:43AS 1015	1h 02m Honolulu	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:12AS 839	7h 19m	85%	60%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 02m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 09m	100%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	48m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	6h 58m	20%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON