Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:30, 44% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 203 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:59	SAN 21:11	30%	10%	0.9%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 38m San Francisco	SFO 16:47 → SAN 18:39UA 1561	8h 29m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 16m Seattle	SEA 16:58 → SAN 19:36AS 635	9h 36m	93%	63%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 19m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 26m	100%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:43AS 1015	47m Honolulu	HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:06AS 827	7h 13m	48%	34%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	7h 15m	70%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON