Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 246 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 246 OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 930 OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 246 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:00	SEA 15:42	11%	3%	0.8%	93%
AS 244 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:34	SEA 22:50	27%	9%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
AS 930 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:55	SEA 21:25	28%	9%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	1h 29m Honolulu	HNL 10:49 → SEA 19:20AS 902	7h 39m	97%	65%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	1h 16m Honolulu	HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822	7h 42m	79%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON