Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1958 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1958 OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2080 OGG 13:52 → SFO 22:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1958 United Flight history →	OGG 07:10	SFO 15:09	7%	3%	0.7%	97%
UA 1726 United Flight history →	OGG 12:00	SFO 19:59	14%	6%	0.7%	85%
AS 978 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:32	SFO 18:27	15%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2080 United	OGG 13:52	SFO 22:05	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	1h 32m Honolulu	HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28AS 812	7h 22m	86%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON