Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 26%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:52, 38% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 954 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:07	SJC 20:03	22%	8%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 20m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → SJC 20:57AS 854	9h 16m	100%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	50m Seattle	SEA 16:32 → SJC 18:35AS 521	8h 35m	73%	52%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	1h 06m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → SJC 20:57AS 854	7h 05m	65%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON