Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 960 at 12:23, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:23	SMF 20:36	22%	7%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 17:02 → SMF 18:49AS 681	8h 49m	94%	64%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	3h 15m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → SMF 23:02AS 820	9h 10m	99%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON