tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3225 at 11:11, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3225 Southwest OKC 11:11 AUS 12:38 8% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 10m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 36m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 54m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:37 → AUS 09:49AA 794 4h 48m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 6h 10m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 5h 48m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → AUS 20:22DL 1170 7h 04m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → OKC 07:46 → DFW 09:03AA 2272 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852 6h 00m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 3h 33m 74% 62%
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:14 → DFW 16:25AA 2929 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 08m 74% 60%
UnitedDetails → OKC 11:56 → IAH 13:34UA 5663 · flown by SkyWest 46m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 3h 31m 39% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON