Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3226 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3226 Southwest	OKC 07:41	BNA 09:35	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3227 Southwest	OKC 16:36	BNA 18:30	15%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	7h 07m	99%	89%
United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605	5h 37m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	7h 03m	99%	87%
American Details →	OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:20 → BNA 09:24AA 1103	4h 23m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	5h 34m	99%	85%
American Details →	OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 13:06 → BNA 13:39AA 538	6h 59m	98%	84%
American Details →	OKC 07:28 → ORD 09:42AA 4994 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Chicago	ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362	5h 48m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON