Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 208 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 208 Southwest	OKC 05:41	DAL 06:51	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 392 Southwest	OKC 18:11	DAL 19:22	16%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 35m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	OKC 12:56 → HOU 14:35WN 4760	2h 22m Houston	HOU 16:57 → DAL 18:12WN 44	5h 16m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	8h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 45m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 18m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON