tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1334 Southwest OKC 11:01 DCA 14:59 16% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2475 American OKC 17:18 DCA 21:31 23% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 5h 58m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 40m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 26m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 54m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 7h 52m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → OKC 07:46 → DFW 09:03AA 2272 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 13m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → OKC 11:56 → IAH 13:34UA 5663 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Houston IAH 16:55 → DCA 21:18UA 235 8h 22m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 56m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:14 → DFW 16:25AA 2929 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 5h 17m 72% 52%
UnitedDetails → OKC 11:56 → IAH 13:34UA 5663 · flown by SkyWest 46m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 5h 35m 39% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON