Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3230 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3230 OKC 06:21 → DEN 07:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2422 OKC 17:06 → DEN 17:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3230 Southwest	OKC 06:21	DEN 07:03	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:58	5%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 2081 Southwest	OKC 11:46	DEN 12:27	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:30	DEN 12:28	12%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 2609 United Flight history →	OKC 08:55	DEN 09:41	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 2748 Southwest	OKC 14:01	DEN 14:42	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 4768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:46	DEN 19:32	15%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 2422 United	OKC 17:06	DEN 17:51	19%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON